I know, a court case sounds dry. But this one changed how I make safety calls. I first read United States v. Carroll Towing Co. in a night class. Then I used it at a small marina job during storm season. And later, I even used the same idea at a tiny warehouse. Funny how a barge case can follow you around, right?
(I ended up jotting the whole marina saga down—here’s the longer, nuts-and-bolts version.)
What’s the big idea? Simple math for common sense
The case is from 1947. Judge Learned Hand wrote it. He said something pretty plain: if the cost to prevent a loss is lower than the chance of the loss times how bad the loss would be, you should spend the money. If not, maybe you don’t.
People write it like this: B < P × L.
- B is the burden (the cost of the safety step).
- P is the probability (the chance something goes wrong).
- L is the loss (how bad it gets if it does go wrong).
Sounds fancy, but it’s just a “Is it worth it?” check. This simple inequality is widely known as the Hand formula, and it pops up far beyond courtrooms.
For an even richer look at how legal principles seep into everyday decision-making, check out Neck Deep, which collects real-world stories of law in action.
(And if you enjoy comparing how different “Carroll” rulings shape day-to-day choices, my first-person take on the car-search version of Carroll shows the same logic playing out on four wheels instead of in the water.)
How I used it on the docks
At the marina, we had old lines and cranky cleats. Winter storms beat them up. A barge once rocked loose two slips down (not ours, thank goodness), and I could feel that sour drop in my stomach. No bargee on board. No one to act fast. That case flashed in my head.
So we asked: do we pay for a night watch during storms?
- B: A night watch was $120 per storm night.
- P: We guessed a 2% chance a barge or skiff would break loose on any storm night. Not certain, but not tiny.
- L: If one slipped, the mess would be huge—about $25,000 in damage, easy, with towing, repairs, and angry calls.
Math time: P × L = 0.02 × $25,000 = $500.
So $500 risk vs. $120 for the watch. That’s B < P × L. We paid for the watch. You know what? We slept better. One rough night, a dock line snapped. The watch caught it. Ten minutes. New line. No crash. No claims. Worth it.
A small warehouse, same rule
Later, I helped at a family-run warehouse. Think boxes, not boats. We had a debate about pallet straps on short runs. Some folks said, “It’s fine, it’s only five blocks.” But boxes slide. Forklifts brake. Stuff falls.
- B: Straps cost about $3 per run.
- P: We guessed a 1% chance of a fall on any quick trip.
- L: A busted pallet could be $600 in broken goods, plus a strained back if someone tries to catch it.
P × L = 0.01 × $600 = $6.
$6 vs. $3. Again, B < P × L. We used straps. Nobody grumbled after the first close call.
What I loved
- It’s plain. It cuts the drama. Is the safety step cheaper than the risk? Do it.
- It helps push for budget. Numbers speak when feelings don’t.
- It teaches fast. I drew “B, P, L” on a whiteboard. Folks got it in minutes.
What bugged me
- P is hard to guess. Chances aren’t crystal clear. We made honest guesses and kept notes.
- It can feel cold. Not all harm is money. People matter more. Sometimes you just spend the money because it’s the right thing.
- Laws can demand action even if the math says “maybe not.” Rules are rules.
Tiny tips that worked for me
- Keep a sticky note with “B, P, L” on your desk.
- Write your guesses, then update them after near-misses.
- Ask the team for real numbers, not just gut feelings.
- For big risks with people involved, treat P × L as a floor, not the whole story.
Who should care?
- Harbor crews and yard managers
- Small business owners who juggle safety and costs
- Teachers who want a clean way to talk about negligence
- Anyone who makes checklists before bad weather hits
(If heavy industry’s your jam, here’s how the formula shows up on the rails—my story of living with United States v. New York Central digs into that world.)
The case, in one breath
A barge drifted because no one was on board to watch it. The court said, if it’s cheap to prevent a big risk, you should do it. That’s it. Not magic. Just clear.
My take
I give United States v. Carroll Towing Co. a solid 4.5 out of 5 as a real-world tool. It won’t make choices for you, and it shouldn’t. But it gives you a simple frame. It helped me spend where it mattered and skip where it didn’t. Boats, boxes, even ladders—it all adds up the same.
Interestingly, the same risk-reward calculus shows up in online spaces too. If you’ve ever weighed the potential payoff of meeting new people against the time, privacy, and safety trade-offs of another social platform, the Hand formula can guide that choice. For an adults-only example, check out Fuckbook — the site is refreshingly direct about what it offers, letting you evaluate the benefits and boundaries before diving in. Likewise, if you’re in or near Englewood and want to see what’s happening locally, you can browse OneNightAffair’s Backpage Englewood listings to compare real-time personals, measure the potential rewards against your own B, P, L factors, and decide whether that late-night meetup is worth the effort.
And on storm nights, when the wind howls and the dock groans, I still think: B, P, L. Then I tie one more knot. Just in case.